Energy geopolitics are back

NEWS

US intervention in Venezuela puts energy security back on the agenda

What happened: The US launched military strikes in Venezuela, kidnapping president Nicolás Maduro and signalling that it intends to “run” the country while U.S. oil companies rebuild and restart its oil sector.

The move - which likely violates international and US laws - puts energy security and geopolitics squarely back in the spotlight heading into 2026.

Why it matters: More exports from Venezuela could change the game for Canadian oil. If production returns, Venezuela’s heavy oil would flow to US refineries that currently rely on Canadian oil, intensifying competition and pushing prices lower.

Global markets are already oversupplied: prices fell roughly 20% last year.

Venezuela produces <1% of global oil output due to sanctions and underinvestment, but holds proven reserves twice as large as Canada’s.

Second-order effects: Persistently low oil prices make fossil fuels more attractive and can undercut the economics of some decarbonization pathways.

But it can also dampen interest in new capital-intensive investments (like pipelines, for example).

The big picture: This episode also highlights a widening divide in how countries pursue energy security.

Petro-states, like the US and Russia, rely on molecules and exert leverage by controlling supply and prices.

Electro-states, like China and the EU, compete through electrons, technology leadership, and control over supply chains like critical minerals.

The bottom line: Energy security geopolitics are back. For Canada, future leverage lies in the electrified systems and abundant, reliable electricity to power industry, growth and climate progress.

CLIMATE CAPITAL

🔋 Battery X Metals (Vancouver, BC) submitted plans to go public to the US SEC.

⛏️ GeologicAI (Calgary, AB) acquired Finland’s Lumo Analytics to enhance its suite of critical minerals sensors. Lumo’s tech enables rapid analysis of core rock samples.

🏘️ Go Lime (Toronto, ON) was acquired by Basalt Infrastructure Partners along with Simply Green, forming Canada’s 4th largest home HVAC leasing platform.

🚗 Potential Motors (Fredericton, NB) sold its core technology and IP for electric off-road vehicles to a leading global manufacturer.

IN THE FIELD

💨 Svante launched a carbon capture pilot at Mercer International’s pulp mill in Alberta, designed to capture emissions from biomass instead of fossil fuels.

📊 Toronto’s Spero Analytics is collaborating with Environment and Climate Change Canada to build and deploy real-time mesh networks for methane monitoring, part of a $16M investment by the feds in methane technologies.

🏭️ Bison Low Carbon Ventures started operations at its Meadowbrook Carbon Storage Hub in Alberta to sequester carbon from Deep Sky’s Alpha direct air capture test site.

💨 Deep Sky injected CO2 at its Thetford Mines site, marking Quebec's first geological injection of carbon captured from the atmosphere.

♻️ NULIFE GreenTech landed a $44.2 million offtake agreement with Frontier to remove 122,000 tons of CO2 by 2030 by converting biowaste into bio-oil.

⚡️ Hydrostor received final permitting approval for its 500 MW Willow Rock Energy Storage project in California.

THE CLIMATE CYCLE

Top episodes of 2025

These are the episodes you listened to the most last year:

• NorthX’s Playbook for Scaling Climate Solutions - Spotify | Apple

• Food Sovereignty and Vertical Farming - Spotify | Apple

• Is Iron the Future of Long-Duration Energy Storage? - Spotify | Apple

• Cultivated Fat and the Future of Food - Spotify | Apple

• Decarbonizing Cement with Carbon Upcycling - Spotify | Apple

• Industrializing Mass Timber Construction - Spotify | Apple

NEWS

📡 Signals & Currents

Canada announced new regulations for reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector and landfills. The regs target a 304M tonne reduction and come into effect in 2028 (although the MOU with Alberta pushed the deadline for reducing methane emissions back to 2035).

A majority of Canadians want their vehicles made in Canada and see EV and battery leadership as a national opportunity according to new polling.

The feds are seeking input on changes to Canada’s standards for industrial carbon pricing, aiming to fix supply and demand issues, long-term predictability, and transparency.

EVs made up 9.4% of sales in Canada in Q3, a slight increase over Q2 - but down 52% YoY. Meanwhile sales grew 36% in Europe.

Municipalities in Ontario are pushing back on contracts that give free land to natural gas utilities over concerns about public benefits and infrastructure lock-in.

Ontario will collaborate with New York state on developing nuclear energy technologies like SMRs and large-scale reactors.

Quick Hits

• Octopus Energy spun out its gridtech business, Kraken, valued a $8.65B

• Google acquired data center energy developer Intersect Power

• Trump suspended all offshore wind farms - Orsted will challenge in court

• China says it’s built a CO2-based power generator that uses carbon instead of steam to generate electricity

• Nat Bullard’s annual presentation dropped

• Tesla is no longer the world’s biggest EV maker

• Green debt sales hit record levels

COMMUNITY NOTES

🚀 Climate Solutions Prize 2026: With $1M in prizes up for grabs, the Climate Solutions Prize supports the scientists, founders, and changemakers developing the solutions needed to address the climate challenge. June 8-9th. Apply now.

📅 Carbon Unbound: Hundreds of climate leaders gather in Vancouver, where sea, land, and air unite to drive bold gigaton-scale solutions. Jan 22-23, Vancouver.

👩‍💻 Mangrove Lithium is hiring an R&D Engineer for its battery-grade lithium tech.

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