Grid Shift: Renewables set to double by 2035

After a bleak 2024, Canada’s renewable energy industry is ready for a major rebound.

What happened: A new market outlook from the Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) is forecasting $143 - $205 billion worth of new investment in wind, solar, and storage by 2035, driven by surging demand for electricity.

The details: Today, Canada has about 17 GW of wind, 2.3 GW of utility-scale solar, and just 1 GW of battery energy storage capacity installed, with over 18 GW of new projects in the pipeline.

By 2035, CanREA is projecting more than 30 GW of new wind, 17 GW of solar, and 12 GW of storage.

The context: Renewable energy deployments slowed in 2024 after Alberta implemented a moratorium on new projects. The province had been Canada’s renewables leader thanks to its open energy market and corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs). But the leftover uncertainty and upcoming changes to its energy market are stalling new investments.

Other regions are starting to step up: B.C. issued calls for 9,000 GWh of clean energy; Ontario aims to secure 5,000 MW, half of which is storage; and Nova Scotia is working on building out a new offshore wind industry.

Renewables are taking off around the world, too. The IEA expects capacity to grow by 2.7x by 2030.

The drivers:

• Rapid cost and efficiency improvements from tech development and mass manufacturing

• Cost reductions in batteries from EV growth

• Federal clean investment tax credits

• Corporate PPAs

• Provincial procurements to meet long-term electricity demand

Why it matters: Wind and solar are Canada’s cheapest, fastest-to-deploy options to meet surging demand and decarbonizing electricity. Renewables could go from 10% of Canada’s supply today to 21% by 2035, making up 70% of all new capacity.

Expanding renewables could anchor industrial growth and energy security with abundant electricity while cutting grid emissions 5x by 2035.

What we’re watching:

• Energy markets. Alberta can become a leader again, but needs to create more certainty for investors and favourable market conditions. Ontario and others can start tapping into corporate PPAs.

• Policy certainty. Clean ITCs drove significant growth, but expire in 2035. Canada’s Clean Electricity Regulations could encourage more investment too - if they survive.

• Offshore wind. The Trump admin is determined to wipe out offshore wind in the U.S. Canada has an opportunity to bring project developers north.

• Storage deployment. With just 1 GW of battery storage online, Canada needs to ramp up storage of all types to integrate renewables with variable output.

• Distributed energy resources (DERs). The time could be right for DERs to take off, and utilities will need more tools to execute effective demand response and tap into virtual power plants.

The bottom line: Canada’s wind, solar, and storage markets are poised for a growth cycle that could double or triple clean capacity by 2035. A transformed electricity system creates new opportunities across the grid - but only if governments deliver stable regulatory environments, grid infrastructure, and the right incentives to scale.

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